Q and A: What happens next?

By Daniel McDermon | amNY.com

July 13, 2006

Q and A with Judith Kipper, adviser for Middle East Programs and director of the Energy Security Group for the Council on Foreign Relations.

Are Israel and Lebanon at war?

Not yet. A war would mean all-out fighting, possibly with a land invasion of Israel into Lebanon. This is an escalation of violence and force against the provocations of a guerilla group. It's a confrontation, but not every confrontation is a war.

What does the renewal of conflict between Israel and Lebanon mean for the region?

It increases tension, but unless it spills over to any other state, it's likely to be containable.

Does it affect the U.S. position in Iraq?

Not yet. Any increased tension in the region is something the U.S. must pay attention to, but it doesn't mean much immediately. The parties in the region are very stubborn, and all these things increase tension and invite others to take their own actions, which could change the situation. Relations with Iran are obviously very strained, but the nuclear issue remains the number one issue.

Is there a way for this conflict to be resolved?

There is always a way for the conflict to be resolved, when parties back away from the use of violence. What we cannot assess right now is whether Hezbollah has an interest in cooling down this situation. With Israeli soldiers being held in Lebanon and in Gaza, Israel may feel [the conflict] has to be escalated.

What does this mean for the Israeli disengagement policy?

If this is a blip on the screen, 15 weeks or two months -- a "long, hot summer," as they say -- Israel can return to their disengagement plan. If it continues, obviously we're not going to see any unilateral disengagement any time soon.

What role do Syria and Iran play in this conflict, and how might it evolve?

Syria and Iran back Hezbollah and Hamas quite actively, and they play a significant role in planning. [Despite the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon last year], Syria's influence in Lebanon is not residual. They still have great influence there. It's always a triangular game, because the targets Israel hit in Lebanon are affiliated with Syria.

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Q and A: What happens next?

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