Updated forecast:
Tropical Storm Erika continues its track across the Caribbean, according to advisories from the National Hurricane Center. As of 5 a.m. Saturday, the storm was at 19.1 degrees N 75.1 degrees W moving west northwest at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were at 40 mph, the advisory said.
“Poorly organized Erika continues to produce heavy rains in Haiti,” the hurricane center said.
The storm’s three-day track puts the hurricane over southern Florida late Sunday into early Monday.
— Reporting by News Editor Felicia L. Mason
FRIDAY, AUG. 28, 2015. 7:13 A.M.
Tropical Storm Erika’s projected path has shifted, again.
The storm is now forecasted to make landfall early Monday morning in South Florida as a tropical storm.
It could then continue north up the center of the state, putting Central Florida in its direct path.
Forecasters say that will only happen if Erika can survive strong wind shear and other unfavorable weather near the Bahamas.
If it does, Erika will mostly likely stay fairly weak as a tropical storm and not reach hurricane strength as previously forecasted.
“The combination of the shear and interaction with Hispaniola suggest that Erika is likely to weaken and could even dissipate in the next 12 to 24 hours,” forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said.
As of 5 a.m., Erika was about 155 miles east-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, moving west at about 17 mph.
The storm has remained unorganized, with maximum winds of 50 mph and tropical storm force winds extending up to 150 miles from the north and east of the center.
Forecasters are predicting some weakening today as Erika moves over land in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. It should then stay that strength on Saturday as it moves into the central Bahamas.
Erika is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain in most spots, with maximum amounts of up to 12 inches across parts of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and the Bahamas.
The Hurricane Center is warning that Erika’s rain could also cause “life-threatening” floods and mudslides.
Those rains have already proven deadly in Dominica, where Erika unleashed landslides that killed at least four people.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for countries including, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Southeastern and Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Forecasters say Erika could strengthen slightly if it makes it through the Bahamas on Saturday.
“Confidence in the intensity forecast remains very low,” forecasters said.
sallen@orlandosentinel.com
