Brexit could give Spain major bargaining power over Gibraltar

Speaking to my Washington Post colleague Griff Witte in January, Gibraltar’s chief minister, Fabian Picardo, described the Brexit campaign’s triumph as a moment of “deep sorrow,” as his constituents, in Witte’s words, “are committed Europeans and because they knew the vote to leave would give Spain leverage.”

Leverage, in this case, regards heretofore weak Spanish claims on the territory. Despite its obvious geographical contiguity with Spain, and the fact that more than 12,000 workers commute into the territory from Spain every day, native Gibraltarians steadfastly maintain that they are British, as the land itself has been since the early 1700s. In a 2002 referendum, they overwhelmingly reaffirmed that in the ballot box.

But with its essential reliance on the Spanish mainland, Britain’s withdrawal from the open border and customs agreements of the E.U. means that Spain can choose to exert crippling economic pressure as a bargaining chip.

On Friday, the E.U. indicated that it would tacitly back Spain’s claims on the territory in its draft negotiation guidelines for Brexit. The document stipulates that “no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom.” In other words, London will have to negotiate directly with Madrid on any Brexit-related arrangements affecting Gibraltar.

The wording was immediately lauded in Spain and seen as an affront in the U.K.

British Prime Minister Theresa May called Picardo on Sunday morning to say that the U.K. remained “steadfastly committed to our support for Gibraltar, its people and its economy,” and that she would defend the “freely and democratically expressed wishes” of its residents that had made their desire to remain part of Britain clear.

A former leader of May’s Conservative Party, Michael Howard, took the rhetoric up a few notches, saying that Britain would go to war against Spain for Gibraltar if necessary, just as Margaret Thatcher did against Argentina in 1982 over the Falkland Islands.

“Thirty-five years ago this week, another woman prime minister sent a task force halfway across the world to defend the freedom of another small group of British people against another Spanish-speaking country, and I’m absolutely certain that our current prime minister will show the same resolve in standing by the people of Gibraltar,” Howard told Sophy Ridge on Sunday on Sky News.

British politicians who did not support Brexit expressed alarm that “saber-rattling for war” against longtime European allies had begun even before negotiation guidelines had been agreed upon. “It is absolutely ludicrous and totally inflammatory,” said Tim Farron, leader of the Liberal Democrats.

Gibraltar is home to a British air base, airport and seaport, and is only 12 miles from the coast of North Africa. The U.K. handles its security and foreign policy, while leaving all other matters, including taxation, to the local government.