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Will defeating Islamic State unleash a ‘terrorist diaspora’ in the West?

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“At some point there is going to be a terrorist diaspora out of Syria like we’ve never seen before. Not all of the Islamic State killers are going to die on the battlefield.”

FBI Director James Comey, July 27, 2016

A French teen slits the throat of an elderly priest in France. Islamic State claims credit. A truck driver barrels over hundreds of men, women and children celebrating Bastille Day in Nice. Islamic State claims credit. Gunmen rampage through a nightclub in Orlando, and a health center in San Bernardino, bombs explode at airports in Brussels and Istanbul, a car bomb in Baghdad kills more than 180, a suicide bomber in Ansbach, Germany, wounds 15 …

The stomach-churning headlines come in rapid-fire bursts now. Behind them all, the same terror inspiration: Islamic State.

Chilling thought: On Wednesday, FBI Director James Comey said the worst could be yet to come when the U.S. and its allies crush Islamic State in its self-anointed caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

When, not if.

The defeat of Islamic State could disperse hundreds of fighters to the West, including the U.S., Comey says. The scale of the potential threat is “an order of magnitude greater than anything we’ve seen before.”

Is Comey suggesting that America and its allies go easy on Islamic State to prevent the dispersal of defeated terrorists? Not at all. It’s logical to expect that Islamic State will ramp up attacks as it loses territory to a U.S.-led coalition. But Islamic State won’t be appeased or contained if its enemies back off. It won’t hesitate to inspire and launch more terror attacks against the U.S. and its allies. Islamic State would use any respite to grow stronger, to threaten more of Iraq and Syria, to spur even greater conflict in the Middle East.

Residents gather at the site of a bomb attack in Syria's northeastern city of Qamishli on July 27, 2016. A massive bomb blast claimed by the Islamic State group killed at least 44 people and wounded dozens in the Kurdish-majority Syrian city, according to Syrian state media.
Residents gather at the site of a bomb attack in Syria’s northeastern city of Qamishli on July 27, 2016. A massive bomb blast claimed by the Islamic State group killed at least 44 people and wounded dozens in the Kurdish-majority Syrian city, according to Syrian state media.

That’s why this page has urged America and its allies to squeeze harder on Islamic State. Help Iraqi forces and other allies capture the key Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa in Syria, Islamic State’s de facto capital, and Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city.

Some encouraging developments:

* NATO is muscling up its anti-terrorism forces, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg writes in The Wall Street Journal. That includes training more Iraqi officers and providing logistical, strategic and intelligence support across the region to fight Islamic State.

* On Thursday came reports that the U.S. is poring over a huge trove of intelligence about Islamic State fighters who have trekked into Syria and Iraq and, in some cases, returned home. That could help Western security forces blunt some future attacks, whether in Europe, America or elsewhere.

* After the truck rampage in France, the U.S. and Russia agreed to cooperate militarily to end the Syrian civil war. We’ll see if that is more than a diplomatic feint by Russian President Vladimir Putin: Is he serious about ramping up the fight against Islamic State? Putin has reason to help crush Islamic State after terrorists bombed a Russian jetliner out of the sky last year. He knows, too, that the terrorist suicide bombers who attacked the Istanbul airport in June reportedly came from Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Close enough to home, Vlad? The U.S. coalition has a better shot at prevailing over Islamic State with Russian help, or at least without Russian interference.

Islamic State gains its credibility by battlefield successes, by the territory its fighters hold, the numbers of people they terrorize, the brutality they inflict on the weak and innocent.

If the U.S. and its allies extinguish Islamic State, the terror inspiration flickers out.

A terrorist diaspora is a terrible possibility to contemplate. But far worse is a rising Islamic State, inspiring more savagery against civilians across the West. Comey calls violence directed or inspired by Islamic State “the greatest threat to the physical safety of Americans today.” That may be an exaggeration — particularly to people in some of Chicago’s violence-wracked neighborhoods.

But imagine how much greater the threat if Islamic State thrives, expands its vicious reach.

If a terrorist diaspora is the price of victory, then let’s make it as small as possible and as soon as possible.

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