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After the Carrier jobs fix: Trump’s nixing of a Pacific trade pact would help … China

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When Donald Trump takes office, he says, one of his first acts will be to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed trade deal with 11 other nations. Illinois farmers and factory owners are dismayed. China’s thrilled. What does that tell you about the wisdom of Trump’s decision? Let’s unpack it:

The point of TPP is to knock down trade barriers and create stronger, fairer business relationships with a group of countries that make up 40 percent of the global economy. TPP would increase the exports of Illinois corn, pork, machinery and other products to member countries such as Japan. Give American exporters the opportunity to compete, and chances are they win. That’s how our country rolls. That’s why so many of our neighbors already have jobs that depend on robust global trade. TPP, which requires congressional approval, would help America, and Americans.

China, potentially the single most important trade partner with the U.S., chose not to join TPP at inception, a gamble that suddenly looks shrewd. The Chinese proposed their own, looser Asia-Pacific trade federation of 16 nations, not including the U.S. The alternate pact, known as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, doesn’t have the potential firepower of TPP, so the notion hasn’t meant much to American interests. But if Trump effectively kills TPP (the agreement is worth little without U.S. participation), then China’s trade gambit takes center stage — as does China’s ability to dictate the future terms of globalization.

This is why the death of TPP would be such a travesty: Trade is more than a two-way street. It’s a vehicle for defining and nurturing relationships, making it a crucial element of the post-Cold War global competition for economic and political influence. America has done well in that competition.

TPP would knock down tariffs, quotas and burdensome red tape. It would set rules governing intellectual property, establish principles for labor rights and address the unfair competitive advantages held by government-owned companies. Overall, TPP would bind the United States more closely to other member nations, and do so in a way that promotes democratic, free-market ideals. TPP countries, besides the U.S. and Japan, are Canada, Australia, Mexico, Malaysia, Singapore, Chile, Peru, New Zealand, Vietnam and Brunei.

If TPP is kaput, China gets a free hand to sidle closer to its proposed RCEP trading partners, which include the nations of Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. “This is a good opportunity for China to be more powerful on the global stage starting with economics, and to gain a larger voice,” Zou Zheng-fang, an economics professor at China’s Renmin University, told The Wall Street Journal. What will China do with its larger voice? Not a lot to promote American goals and interests. Nothing to nurture democracy. And absolutely zip to create jobs in Chicago, Illinois, the Midwest, the U.S.

Trump made attacks on trade, and TPP in particular, a big part of his campaign. His argument, that global trade is robbing America and is to blame for the loss of factory jobs, is politically powerful. It’s also simplistic, and wrong. The U.S. is already an integral part of the global economy. Trade juices economic growth for all nations because it allows them to specialize in what they do best and buy everything else from others, often at cheaper prices. While Trump blamed trade for the loss of American manufacturing jobs, the truth is most of those positions didn’t migrate to China or Mexico. Most disappeared because American factories continually improve their productivity.

During the campaign, Trump badgered Carrier, the Indiana manufacturer, for deciding to move as many as 2,000 jobs to Mexico. Tuesday night, Trump declared victory: Carrier agreed to preserve more than 1,000 jobs in the state, reportedly in exchange for economic incentives. That’s tremendous news for those workers, but it does nothing to position the United States to compete and win in the global economy. Presidents, even ones who think of themselves as consummate dealmakers, can’t spend their time in office traveling the country negotiating expensive government incentives to save jobs.

Once in the White House, we hope Trump refocuses on the big picture to help make American companies as profitable and vibrant as they can be. That includes bringing down tax rates to give business owners a level playing field with companies overseas. It also means giving those employers every incentive to invest in jobs and growth here. And it includes accepting the idea that America’s future prosperity and security will be assured by embracing global trade, not backing away.

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