Mixed signals for Clinton

NY voters give her high marks in poll, but she still remains a polarizing figure for many

BY GLENN THRUSH | NEWSDAY WASHINGTON BUREAU

March 8, 2006

WASHINGTON - Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a 2-1 lead over GOP Senate challenger John Spencer, but her inability to woo state Republicans could foreshadow similar problems she would have as a presidential candidate, a Newsday/NY1 News survey released yesterday has found.

Clinton leads Spencer, the former mayor of Yonkers, 57 percent to 30 percent, according to the poll of 1,457 registered New York voters taken in the last week. In New York, as in the rest of the nation, analysts say, Clinton remains a polarizing figure, winning just 20 percent of the GOP vote to Spencer's 67 percent. That's a tad better than the 13 percent of Republicans who voted for her in 2000, but not a major improvement after five-plus years in office.

"Where she actually stands on stuff has very little to do with the way people feel about her," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "It's going to carry over into a national race because the people that love her, love her and the people that don't, hate her."

Still, New Yorkers of all stripes are satisfied with her performance, giving her an overall approval rating of 64 percent, compared to 28 percent who disapprove of her performance.

Even 36 percent of GOP respondents said she's doing a good job.

And there are signs that Clinton's careful crafting of centrist positions - including her moderate pro-Iraq-war stance - may be resonating with middle-of-the-road voters. The former first lady scored well among independent voters, who represent a fifth of New York's electorate, beating Spencer by 58 percent to 24 percent in that key demographic, the poll found.

"You're asking too much of Hillary if you expect she'll get more than 15, 20 percent of Republicans. She's much more concerned with independents," said Paul Maslin, a veteran Democratic pollster. "In these polarizing days it's very hard for Republican voters to cross over and support somebody, whether you're talking about Hillary or any other Democrat."

Clinton campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson said it's unrealistic to expect his boss to garner high Republican support, but credited her success with independents to an "ability to reach outside her Democratic base."

The poll didn't include a Clinton matchup against former Pentagon spokeswoman Kathleen Troia McFarland, who entered the GOP primary this week.

The survey by Blum & Weprin Associates showed that Clinton did best with her core constituency of women, blacks, Latinos, liberals and New York City residents. No group supports Clinton as much as black voters, who gave her an 86 percent approval rating, nearly the level achieved by Bill Clinton.

Long Islanders back Clinton's re-election, albeit by less than the state average, giving her a 52-36 percent edge over Spencer. She did best in New York City, winning 72-17 percent, and worst in upstate suburbs, where her matchup with Spencer is a statistical dead heat.

If there was a common thread among voters' responses, it was the lack of ambivalence. A mere 10 percent said they hadn't decided to vote for or against her in the 2006 elections.

"I can't stand her, I think everything that comes out of her mouth is garbage," said Harvey Abolafia, 59, a retiree from Selden who plans to vote for Spencer. "I have no idea what Spencer stands for but I'd vote for anybody except her."

Barbara Wilkerson, 60, from the Morrisania section of the Bronx, said she'd support Clinton for president. "I just think she's so good for lower-class, working-class people," said Wilkerson, a lifelong Democrat.

How's she doing?

The poll also asked voters to rate Clinton.

If the general election for senator were being held today, for whom would you vote?

Other/Unsure/Would not vote 13%

Hillary Clinton (D) 57%

John Spencer (R) 30%