Options in Iraq murky

Although an independent panel lays out proposals, some say Bush may not accept them

BY MOHAMAD BAZZI | MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT; Newsday Washington Bureau chief Timothy M. Phelps contributed to this story.

December 1, 2006

BEIRUT, Lebanon - The summit between President George W. Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki leaves more questions than answers about future U.S. policy in Iraq.

And a report due for release next week by an independent commission studying U.S. options is unlikely to provide a real framework for the most urgent questions facing the Bush administration: how to contain sectarian violence, negotiate with insurgents, hand over greater security responsibility to Iraqi forces and begin withdrawing U.S. troops.

The report by the Iraq Study Group, chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker and former U.S. Rep. Lee Hamilton, reportedly will recommend a withdrawal of some U.S. troops in Iraq, but without a specific timetable. The report will also urge the Bush administration to reach out to Syria and Iran for help in dealing with Iraq.

Some Iraq analysts say expectations are too high in Washington that the report would radically change U.S. policy. With five Republicans and five Democrats, the commission reached its recommendations by consensus.

"Everyone had very high expectations and they're all going to be disappointed," said Judith Yaphe, a former CIA Middle East analyst who now teaches at National Defense University in Washington, D.C. She noted there's no guarantee Bush will accept the panel's recommendations.

After meeting al-Maliki in Amman, Jordan, yesterday, Bush once again rejected calls to set a timetable for troop withdrawals, hinting there would be no major change in U.S. policy. "This business about a graceful exit just simply has no realism to it at all," Bush said at a news conference with al-Maliki by his side.

U.S. public debate on Iraq is too narrowly focused on troop levels and deadlines, analysts say. "What Iraq really needs right now is a new political formula," said Vali Nasr, a leading expert on Shia Islam and a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. "The political process in Iraq is dead. ... Everything is happening in the streets."

After yesterday's summit, there was little sign of changing reality on Iraqi streets.

Al-Maliki skirted a central U.S. demand, to rein in Shia militias that are using Iraqi security forces to carry out sectarian killings. For months, the Bush administration has tried to push al-Maliki's Shia-dominated government into talks with Sunni political and tribal leaders close to the insurgents. Washington has also pressed Sunni-led regimes such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia to mediate between Iraqi factions.

But Sunni leaders inside and outside Iraq are angry at al-Maliki's reluctance to confront Shia militias, especially the one led by renegade cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. "Regional powers want to see al-Maliki take steps to reduce sectarian violence," said an Arab diplomat involved in Iraq policy. "The Jordanians and Saudis can use their influence over Iraq's Sunnis, but they need something in return."

The diplomat said al-Maliki only worsened relations with neighboring governments by refusing to attend a three-way meeting Wednesday night with Bush and Jordan's King Abdullah. The Shia leader's snub underscored his distrust of neighboring Sunni countries and renewed concerns about his closeness with Iran's Shia leadership.

Iraqi Shia politicians, including al-Maliki, believe the U.S. military is focusing too much attention on Shia militias, especially with repeated raids against al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. They say U.S. forces should instead focus on defeating the Sunni-led insurgency. But as attacks on Shia civilians increase, and in turn retaliatory killings by Shia militias grow, too, groups like the Mahdi Army become more entrenched and difficult to dismantle.

The situation is further complicated because al-Maliki needs the cleric's political support to remain in power. Al-Sadr commands one of the largest blocs in the Iraqi parliament, and he was instrumental in backing al-Maliki for the premiership. But after insurgent attacks last week killed 215 people in the Shia slum known as Sadr City, the cleric threatened to pull his 30 lawmakers and five ministers out of the government if al-Maliki met with Bush. On Wednesday, al-Sadr's supporters "suspended" membership in the government.

Al-Maliki must negotiate for their return, and the cleric is likely to extract concessions. That, in turn, will anger Washington.

Newsday Washington Bureau chief Timothy M. Phelps contributed to this story.

E-mail

Reprint

Options in Iraq murky

Although an independent panel lays out proposals, some say Bush may not accept them

Popular stories

Hampton Roads Facts, Data and Statistics

Blogs