Voices raised for Syria

Demonstrators shout anti-American slogans as they wave Lebanese flags and hold portraits of Syrian President Bashar Assad, right, Lebanese president Emile Lahoud and slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in Beirut, Lebanon, on March 8. Tens of thousands of pro-Syrian protesters gathered, answering a nationwide call by the militant Shiite Muslim Hezbollah group to demonstrate against Western intervention in Lebanon. (AP/str)

BEIRUT, Lebanon - The counter-revolution has begun.

Since the Feb. 14 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri plunged Lebanon into a crisis, the country's Shia Muslims have stayed on the sidelines. Most Shias, Lebanon's largest religious group, have not taken part in the daily protests that pressured the Syrian-backed government to resign and heightened international pressure on Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon.

But on Sunday, the leader of Hezbollah, Lebanon's largest Shia party, called on his supporters to take to the streets today in a show of support for Syria - and against U.S. pressure on Damascus. The Hezbollah rally, which will include about 30 smaller Muslim and Christian parties that support Syria, is likely to bring several hundred thousand people into downtown Beirut.

Hearing the call

Hezbollah's action could mobilize the Shia plurality - Shias make up about 40 percent of Lebanon's 4 million people - and heighten sectarian tensions in a country still recovering from a 15-year civil war. Hezbollah's call has already highlighted the fact that there is no Lebanese consensus on a Syrian withdrawal, as the Bush administration has tried to argue. Without support from Shias, the anti-Syria opposition will be hard-pressed to claim it represents the majority of Lebanese.

"Hezbollah was in a very tough position after Hariri's assassination," said Hazem Amin, an editor at the pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat and an expert on the Shia. "But now it has decided to expose the lack of Shia support for the opposition."

As the only Lebanese party that has been allowed to keep a militia after the 1975-90 civil war, Hezbollah has much to lose from a Syrian withdrawal and an end to Damascus' political domination over Lebanon. Syria and Iran have long been Hezbollah's patrons, and with their support the group fought an 18-year guerrilla war that ousted Israel from southern Lebanon in 2000.

The United States has branded Hezbollah - and its satellite television channel, Al-Manar - as terrorist organizations. But most Lebanese regard it as a dominant political force that cannot be eliminated from society.

Seeking an 'honorable exit'

Today Hezbollah (Arabic for "Party of God") is once again using the specter of Israeli involvement in Lebanon as a tool to mobilize the Shia masses. Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, a Shia cleric and Hezbollah's leader, declared Sunday that the United States is pressuring Syria to withdraw at the behest of Israel.

"The aim of America and Israel is to spread chaos in Lebanon and bring it back to a state of anarchy," Nasrallah said at a news conference after chairing a meeting of pro-Syrian parties. He acknowledged Syria would soon have to withdraw its 14,000 troops from Lebanon, but he urged Lebanese to ensure that Damascus is able to have an "honorable exit" that is "not dictated by foreign pressures."

Syrian President Bashar Assad told his country's parliament on Saturday that he would pull back the troops in two stages, first to the Bekaa valley in eastern Lebanon and then to the Lebanese-Syrian border. Assad met yesterday with Lebanese President Emile Lahoud in Damascus, and the two agreed to redeploy the troops to the Bekaa valley by March 31, but they did not provide a timeline for a pullout to the border area.

In Washington, White House spokesman Scott McClellan called the redeployment "a half measure" and repeated the Bush administration's demand that Syrian troops and intelligence agents leave before Lebanon's parliamentary elections in May.

"We stand with the Lebanese people, and the Lebanese people, I think, are speaking very clearly," McClellan said, referring to the daily anti-Syrian protests held in Beirut since Hariri's killing, which many blame on Syria and its Lebanese allies. Yesterday, the Lebanese opposition held one of its largest demonstrations ever, drawing about 50,000 people.

But with its ability to mobilize supporters for demonstrations, Hezbollah is likely to dwarf the opposition crowds. That would play into Syria's argument that a "silent majority" do not want it to leave.

"We would not stay one day after there was Lebanese consensus on the departure of Syria," Assad said in his speech to parliament Saturday. Hezbollah's counter-rally today is intended to show that such a consensus does not exist. Morever, Hezbollah carefully chose to hold its demonstration less than a half-mile from the square where anti-Syrian rallies are based.

"There is a desire to show that Hezbollah can draw more people than the opposition," said Sarkis Noun, a columnist for Beirut's An-Nahar newspaper. "This could make it difficult for the United States to argue that the opposition crosses all sectarian lines in Lebanese society."

For years, the anti-Syrian opposition has been led by Lebanese Christians, and especially the Maronite Christian community, which lost the most political power at the end of the civil war. Last year, leaders of the Druze community and some Sunni Muslims joined the opposition. After the assassination of Hariri, a Sunni, many Sunnis gravitated to the anti-Syria camp. But the two largest Shia parties, Hezbollah and Amal, have been allied with Syria since the 1980s.

Lebanon's civil war ended with an agreement that redistributed power among a Maronite Christian president, Sunni Muslim prime minister and Shia Muslim speaker of parliament. In that agreement, the Syrian military was supposed to guarantee security and disarm militias.

After Sunday's meeting, Nasrallah indicated that the pro-Syrian parties would likely run together in the parliamentary elections. He said they would not allow the opposition to dominate the new parliament and appoint a government that would be hostile to Syria.