November 22, 2008
Lebanon's legislative shocker
Former general who battled Syrian troops is now positioned to be parliament's main power broker
DAMASCUS, Syria - He's the Ross Perot of Lebanese politics.
Michel Aoun, a former army commander who returned to Lebanon last month after 15 years in exile, has shaken the country's political landscape, which had been divided between pro- and anti-Syrian factions.
The general, who fought and lost a war with Syrian troops in Lebanon, at first flirted with the anti-Syrian opposition. But he ended up joining forces with pro-Syrian groups, and that alliance paid off Sunday when Aoun and his allies won a surprising victory in the third round of Lebanese legislative elections.
Aoun's victory could make it more difficult for the opposition to win a majority in the 128-member parliament and remove the last vestiges of Syrian influence over Lebanon. Without a majority, the opposition would be unable to oust the Syrian-backed Lebanese president, Emile Lahoud.
"General Aoun is now positioned to become the most powerful Christian politician in Lebanon," said Ibrahim Amin, a columnist at Lebanon's As-Safir newspaper. "He could even become the main power broker in parliament."
Aoun and his allies won 21 of 23 contested seats in the mainly Christian region of Mount Lebanon. Fifty-eight seats were at stake on Sunday, but most were uncontested or had little competition. The opposition won 27, and an alliance of pro-Syrian Shia Muslim parties captured 10.
In the first two rounds of voting, the opposition won all 19 seats in Beirut, and the Shia alliance captured all 23 seats in southern Lebanon. The last election is Sunday in northern Lebanon, where 28 seats are at stake.
The opposition had gained momentum after the Feb. 14 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which many Lebanese blamed on Syria and its allies in the Lebanese government. Hariri's killing prompted a wave of popular protests and international pressure that forced Syria to withdraw thousands of troops from Lebanon after a 29-year presence. But Syria still exerts influence through its political allies and supporters in the Lebanese security services.
Some politicians accused Aoun of returning to Lebanon at Syria's behest so he could undermine the opposition and divide the Christian vote. Before Aoun's return from exile in France, most Christians supported the anti-Syrian opposition.
"Michel Aoun is a Syrian tool," opposition leader Walid Jumblatt told Lebanese TV on Sunday. "I acknowledge that he won. The Christian extremists have vanquished the moderates."
Aoun, 70, says his feud with Syria ended once Damascus withdrew its troops. "The divide in Lebanese politics is no longer between pro-Syrians and anti-Syrians," he told reporters last month. "It's between reformers and traditionalists ... I refuse to act as a Christian leader. I'm a Lebanese citizen."
In his campaign, Aoun vowed to end political rule by the family dynasties that dominate Lebanon and to combat corruption.
Syrian officials are coy about their role in supporting Aoun. "We are willing to work with any Lebanese leader who is committed to brotherly relations between Lebanon and Syria," said a Syrian official who asked not to be named.
Aoun's main base of support is among Christian youths who came of age after Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war. Many are college students who were recruited into Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement in the late 1990s. At that time, it was the only political group that openly challenged Syrian domination.
Aoun declared war in 1989 against the Syrian presence in Lebanon. After nearly a year of bloody fighting, Syrian warplanes bombed Aoun out of the Lebanese presidential palace. He fled into exile, where he continued to lobby against Syrian dominance.
In 2003, the Lebanese government brought charges against Aoun for testifying before the U.S. Congress in support of a bill that threatened Syria with sanctions. Those charges were dropped last month, clearing the way for Aoun's return.
By removing that last obstacle, opposition leaders accused Syria of finding new ways to exert influence. Said Jumblatt, "Syria is returning through the back door."
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