November 22, 2008
A killing alters the landscape
Assassination of former Lebanese PM unifies those seeking an end to Syrian political domination
BEIRUT - The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri will irrevocably change the Syrian-Lebanese relationship and might hasten a Syrian military withdrawal from Lebanon, analysts say.
Hariri's killing has already emboldened the Lebanese opposition, which is using renewed international attention on Lebanon to advance its demand for a pullout of the 15,000 Syrian troops here and an end to Damascus' political domination. The opposition lost its most important figure in Hariri, a billionaire and construction tycoon who led Lebanon for 10 years and oversaw the rebuilding of Beirut. But the opposition also gained new momentum and a sense of unity.
"The opposition has not been weakened by Hariri's assassination," said Hazem Amin, an editor at the pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat. "It is now stronger than ever."
For Syria, which has kept thousands of troops in Lebanon since a civil war broke out in 1975, Hariri's killing means new international pressure to end its political and military dominance over its smaller neighbor. The current Lebanese president, prime minister and his cabinet were all handpicked by Syria.
"Syria's presence in Lebanon is no longer sustainable," said Michael Young, a Lebanese political analyst. "The current regime in Lebanon has to change."
Although Damascus denied any involvement in the massive bombing that killed Hariri Monday, Hariri's supporters accused Syria and its allies in the Lebanese government of orchestrating the attack.
"The responsibility for the assassination is known: It starts in Damascus and passes through the Lebanese presidential palace," Marwan Hamadeh, an opposition leader and former economic minister, told Lebanese television on Monday. Hamadeh himself had survived a car bombing in October.
The only claim of responsibility for the attack on Hariri came from a previously unknown Islamic militant group calling itself the "Victory and Holy War Organization in the Levant." The group, which sent a videotape to the Al-Jazeera satellite station, said it was retaliating for the recent killings and arrests of Islamic militants in Saudi Arabia. Hariri amassed his fortune in Saudi Arabia, where he lived for two decades and handled major construction projects for the ruling House of Saud.
Even if Syria was not behind Hariri's death, it will face mounting pressure to withdraw from Lebanon. "No matter who did this, Syria is going to pay the price," Young said.
Hariri was preparing to lead an opposition slate in parliamentary elections planned for April and May. With his vast wealth and popularity, he was considered a formidable opponent to Syrian-backed candidates.
In a sign of Hariri's popularity, most shops and businesses in Beirut were shuttered yesterday, heeding the opposition's call for a three-day general strike. Thousands of mourners marched through the streets in impromptu processions across the city, chanting, "With our blood, with our souls, we will sacrifice for you, Rafik." Others assembled outside Hariri's home, shouting "Syrians Out!"
Young men wearing black armbands roamed the streets on motorcycles and in cars, honking their horns and waving posters of Hariri. "Your death will not be in vain, oh, Rafik," they cried.
Hariri's assassination could rekindle the type of sectarian conflict in Lebanon that led to the 1975-90 civil war, which pitted Christian militias and the Lebanese army against Palestinian groups and militias from the country's Muslim majority. Throughout the war, in which more than 150,000 died, Syria, Iran, Israel and other regional powers provided arms and money to different militias.
The war ended with a peace agreement that redistributed power among the country's Maronite Christian president, Sunni Muslim prime minister and Shia Muslim speaker of parliament. As part of that agreement, the Syrian military was supposed to guarantee security and disarm militias.
Today, Syrian dominance in Lebanon extends over most parts of political life and the country's security. Syria first sent its troops in 1975 at the request of the country's Christian president. At that time, Syria fought alongside the Christian militias and against Palestinians guerrillas and Muslim militias. The Syrians later switched sides, as the Lebanese Christians became allied with Israel.
Syria's influence is most visible in Lebanon's foreign policy. It is taboo for any Lebanese politician to suggest that Lebanon should pursue its own peace negotiations with Israel, without linking it to Syria. For years, Syria has tried to use its dominance over Lebanon as leverage to pressure Israel to return the Golan Heights, territory that Israel captured during the 1967 Middle East War.
While Hariri largely agreed with Syria's strategy of joint negotiations with Israel, he began to quietly criticize Syria's meddling in Lebanese politics. The major breaking point between Hariri and Syria came in October, when Damascus pressured the Lebanese parliament to extend the president's six-year term by three years.
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