Disarming Hezbollah left unclear

BY MOHAMAD BAZZI | Newsday Middle East Correspondent

August 17, 2006

BEIRUT, Lebanon - The Lebanese government yesterday ordered 15,000 troops to move into the country's south to take control as Israeli forces withdraw after 34 days of fighting with Hezbollah.

But, in a sign of how Hezbollah has emerged more politically powerful from the war, the government skirted the questions of when and how to disarm the militia. A United Nations resolution, which led to a cease-fire on Monday, required all weapons in south Lebanon to be handed over to the government.

Lebanese Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said the army would confiscate any weapons found in the area, but he added, "There will not be any confrontations with our brothers in Hezbollah." Government sources said an agreement was reached that Hezbollah fighters would not display any weapons in the south, or access hidden stockpiles of rockets that were fired on northern Israel during the war. In exchange, the army would stay clear of Hezbollah guerrillas.

That suggested an arrangement in the south similar to the one that preceded the war, in which Hezbollah controlled the area but did not display its arms. The difference is that the Lebanese army would be out in force. Lebanon's army has not been deployed in the south since Israeli troops withdrew in May 2000 after an 18-year occupation and guerrilla war with Hezbollah.

Leaders of the Shia group insist it will continue to play a central role in providing social services and charity. "It's impossible to separate Hezbollah from the people," said Hassan Fadlallah, one of the group's 12 representatives in the Lebanese parliament. "Any talk of a south empty of Hezbollah is like talking about emptying the south of its people."

After the UN resolution was approved on Friday, some pro-Western members of the Lebanese government tried to open a debate about disarming Hezbollah. But the group was buoyed by its surprising tenacity, and its ability to inflict heavy casualties on Israeli forces and prevent them from capturing significant territory in the south. In Lebanon and throughout the Arab world, Hezbollah was seen as having scored a victory over a far superior Israeli military.

Their argument for arms

That gave Hezbollah political leverage, and its leaders argue that it needs to remain armed to defend against future Israeli attacks. "Hezbollah is in a very strong position right now," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a political science professor at Lebanese American University and an expert on Hezbollah. "Their heavy weapons will remain hidden and their fighters won't carry weapons out in the open. ... There won't be a drastic change from the situation before the war."

After Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid on July 12, Israel launched its most intense attack since it invaded Lebanon in 1982. The offensive crippled the country's infrastructure, displaced 1 million people, cut off Lebanon from the world and killed more than 840 Lebanese - the majority of them civilians. More than 155 Israelis were killed, 118 of them soldiers.

The UN resolution calls for eventually disarming Hezbollah; creating a buffer zone from the border up to 18 miles inside Lebanon where only the Lebanese army and UN troops would be allowed to carry weapons, and imposing an embargo that would allow only the Lebanese government to bring arms into the country. That ban, which would be enforced by UN peacekeepers, is meant to cut off the supply of missiles to Hezbollah from Iran and Syria.

A hidden military

While the resolution does not impose a timeline for disarming Hezbollah, it does call for its fighters and weapons to be moved out of the 18-mile buffer zone as Lebanese and UN troops deploy there. Because the Lebanese government did not directly address that issue yesterday, Israel and the UN could object and the cease-fire could be in jeopardy.

Hezbollah leaders are hoping to avert pressure by hiding their weapons. "Just like in the past, Hezbollah had no visible military presence and there will not be any visible presence now," said Sheik Nabil Kaouk, the group's top commander in the south.

Under the resolution, the current 2,000-member UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, would monitor the cease-fire and eventually be expanded into a better-armed force with up to 15,000 troops. UN officials said they expect 3,500 new troops to arrive in Lebanon within to 10 to 15 days, so Israeli forces can complete their withdrawal from the south.

Diplomats were working to secure troop commitments quickly so UNIFIL could be beefed up. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy met with Lebanese leaders yesterday to discuss his country's offer to lead the UN force. But Israel might oppose the inclusion of troops from countries that do not have diplomatic relations with the Jewish state - and that could prevent the force reaching its goal of 15,000 members. Malaysia and Indonesia, two Muslim-majority countries, have offered to send 1,000 troops each, but they have no diplomatic ties with Israel.

French officials also are worried that the force might not have enough resources or a clear mission, including when it could use firepower. With a "fuzzy" mission, said French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie, "it could turn into a catastrophe, including for the soldiers that we send."

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