November 22, 2008
Syria faces threat of sanctions
Under pressure from U.S. and France, UN considers resolution as investigation into death of former Lebanese prime minister continues
BEIRUT, Lebanon - Under mounting international pressure, Syria could become the next Libya, a pariah battered by years of economic sanctions and political isolation.
Armed with a United Nations report implicating senior Syrian officials in the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, the United States and France are pushing for a strong UN resolution that threatens Syria with sanctions. The resolution, introduced Tuesday in the Security Council, would require Syria to detain any Syrian official or civilian deemed by UN investigators to be a suspect in Hariri's killing.
Among those who could be detained are the brother and brother-in-law of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Damascus also would have to allow UN investigators to take suspects and witnesses out of the country for questioning, or to interview them inside Syria without government officials present.
"Syria has not been in a situation like this for decades. It is facing complete isolation," said an Arab diplomat involved in negotiations with the Syrian regime. He spoke on the condition of anonymity. "The Americans are going to push Syria against the wall."
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The diplomat said U.S. officials expect the probe to close in on members of Assad's inner circle, and Assad himself would not be spared from scrutiny.
Asked whether the resolution would apply to Assad if he were named a witness or even a suspect, U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton told reporters Wednesday: "It absolutely includes the president of Syria. No person is above the law."
The draft resolution would immediately freeze the assets of and impose a travel ban on anyone named a suspect. If Syria refused to cooperate with the UN team led by German investigator Detlev Mehlis, the Security Council could impose economic sanctions, a ban on flights and other measures against Syria.
U.S. officials are lobbying for the resolution to be approved on Monday, when foreign ministers representing the 15 Security Council members are to hold a special meeting on Syria. But Russia and China, which both have veto power on the council, are trying to delay the threat of sanctions.
"It is a very tough resolution that is difficult to accept," Chinese Ambassador Wang Guangya said at the United Nations. "It goes beyond what is called for in terms of requiring the cooperation of Syria."
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin was even more blunt. "Russia will be doing everything necessary to prevent attempts to impose sanctions against Syria," he said.
The threat of sanctions comes at a time when Russian companies are working to help Syria find new reserves of oil and natural gas as its production declines.
U.S. officials are using the international consensus against Libya as a model for isolating Syria. The regime of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi was under UN sanctions for 11 years after it was found complicit in the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland. The sanctions were lifted in 2003, after Libya turned over two suspects to a Scottish court and agreed to a $2.7-billion settlement with the families of the Lockerbie victims.
But Libya never faced as difficult a choice as Assad might confront because responsibility for the bombing could not be pinned so close to Gadhafi. Adding to the Syrian regime's isolation, its traditional defenders in the Arab world - Saudi Arabia and Egypt - have remained silent on the UN investigation and the threat of sanctions. The diplomat said Arab governments have warned Syria it could end up like Libya, or even Saddam Hussein's Iraq, if it does not cooperate with the UN probe.
In a letter sent to U.S. and French leaders last week, Assad promised that any Syrian implicated in Hariri's death through "concrete evidence" would face trial in Syria. But that promise is unlikely to appease Western governments.
A UN report into the Feb. 14 car bombing that killed Hariri and 20 others concluded the plot was carried out after months of planning and extensive surveillance of Hariri - most likely by top Syrian and Lebanese security officials. A draft of the report named Assad's brother and brother-in-law as among five Syrian officials who plotted Hariri's killing. Their names were deleted from the final version.
Hariri's killing prompted international pressure and popular protests that led to the resignation of Syrian-backed Lebanese Prime Minister Omar Karami and to the withdrawal of Syrian troops. Syria had kept troops in Lebanon since 1976, a year after the start of a civil war. When the war ended in 1990, the troops remained and Syria's influence extended to all parts of Lebanon's political and economic life.
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