Remorse over abductions

BEIRUT, Lebanon - In his first public expression of regret over the abduction of two Israeli soldiers, Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah said yesterday that he would not have ordered the troops' capture if he had known it would lead to a full-scale war with Israel.

After Hezbollah guerrillas abducted the two soldiers in a cross-border raid on July 12, Israel launched its most intense attack since it invaded Lebanon in 1982. The offensive crippled the country's infrastructure, displaced 1 million people, cut off Lebanon from the world and killed more than 1,200 Lebanese - the majority of them civilians. More than 155 Israelis were killed, 118 of them soldiers.

"We did not think that there was even a 1 percent chance that the capture of these soldiers would lead to a war of this magnitude and ferocity," Nasrallah said in an interview on Lebanese TV. "You ask me, if I had known on July 11 that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I would say no, absolutely not."

Nasrallah's statement was a startling admission that he and other Hezbollah leaders had miscalculated the extent of the Israeli response and the overall political climate in the Middle East. But Nasrallah also argued that Israel, with U.S. backing, had been preparing to wage a war against Hezbollah by October.

"When that time came, Israel was going to start a war, whether or not it had a pretext," he said. "This would have been called a part of the 'war on terror' and no one would be able to ask Israel, 'why are you waging war on Lebanon.'"

At the start of the war, Hezbollah was criticized both within and outside Lebanon for provoking a confrontation with Israel and for giving it a pretext to launch a massive attack intended to disarm the Shia militia. But Nasrallah claimed yesterday that his guerrillas had actually taken away the element of surprise from Israel by forcing it to launch its offensive earlier than it had planned.

"We did not fall in a trap by giving the Israelis a pretext," he said. "The Israelis fell in the trap, not us."

Nasrallah did not offer any evidence to back up his claim that Israel was planning an attack in the fall regardless of Hezbollah's actions. Israeli officials have repeatedly denied that they were planning to invade Lebanon before the soldiers' abduction.

By expressing regret for not foreseeing the consequences of the abductions and at the same time arguing that Israel was going to attack Lebanon anyway, analysts say Nasrallah is trying to deflect criticism of his group and demands that it must now disarm.

"He's telling people that Hezbollah did not cause this war by its actions," said Ali Amin, a Lebanese journalist. "He's also arguing that Israel is going to be a constant threat and Hezbollah must remain armed to confront it...I'm not sure if Lebanese want to remain in that constant state of war."

In the interview, Nasrallah, a Shia cleric, continued to act as the de facto ruler of Lebanon, as he has done since July 12. Nasrallah has given eight nationally televised speeches and interviews since that day - more than any other Lebanese leader, including Prime Minister Fuad Saniora.

Nasrallah's appearances are eagerly anticipated, giving Lebanese and Israelis an indication of what might lie ahead. In Beirut, cafes and restaurants fell silent last night as Nasrallah spoke for nearly two hours. In some neighborhoods without electricity, people crowded around television sets powered by small generators. His appearance was punctuated by cheers and applause in the Shia areas where Hezbollah draws its strength.

For the first time, Nasrallah provided a window into the group's inner workings, saying he did not make the decision to capture the Israeli soldiers on his own. He said about 15 members of Hezbollah's "political and military leadership" were involved in the decision. Once the choice was made, he said it took guerrillas about six months to carry out the abduction.

Nasrallah said Italy and the United Nations had initiated "contacts" to begin mediating a prisoner swap with Israel. "The Israelis have acknowledged that this issue is heading for negotiations and an exchange," he said, adding that Nabih Berri, speaker of Lebanon's parliament and a Hezbollah ally, would negotiate on the militia's behalf.

After a UN resolution ended 34 days of fighting on Aug. 14, some pro-U.S. members of the Lebanese government tried to open a debate about disarming Hezbollah. But the militia was bolstered by its surprising tenacity, and its ability to inflict heavy casualties on Israeli forces and prevent them from capturing significant territory. In Lebanon and throughout the Arab world, Hezbollah was seen as having scored a victory over a far superior Israeli military. That gave Hezbollah political leverage, and its leaders argue that it needs to remain armed to defend against future Israeli attacks.

Lebanese officials said a separate agreement was reached within the government that Hezbollah fighters would not display any weapons in southern Lebanon or access hidden stockpiles of rockets that were fired on northern Israel during the war. In exchange, the Lebanese army would stay clear of Hezbollah guerrillas.

That suggested an arrangement in the south similar to the one that preceded the war, where Hezbollah controlled the area but did not display its arms. The difference is that now the Lebanese army would be out in force. Lebanon's army has not been deployed in the south since Israeli troops withdrew in May 2000 after an 18-year occupation and guerrilla war with Hezbollah.

The UN resolution calls for eventually disarming Hezbollah; creating a buffer zone from the border up to 18 miles inside Lebanon, where only the Lebanese army and UN troops would be allowed to carry weapons; and imposing an embargo that would allow only the Lebanese government to bring arms into the country. That ban, which would be enforced by UN peacekeepers, is meant to cut off the supply of missiles to Hezbollah from Iran and Syria.

Nasrallah pledged that his fighters would respect the cease-fire but will not disarm.