Bin Laden plays politics in latest tape

Osama bin Laden (AP Photo)

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Why did Osama bin Laden offer the United States a truce in his latest audiotaped message?

Iraq was clearly foremost on his mind, as he spent a large portion of the 10-minute tape arguing that America is losing the war. But bin Laden also is likely to be worried about the fragmenting of the Iraqi insurgency between Iraqi nationalists and foreign militants allied with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who has caused anger in the Muslim world by relentlessly targeting civilians.

Specialists on Islamic militants doubt that bin Laden would really adhere to a truce with the West, considering his past statements. He likely made the offer to buy time so that he could reconstitute his forces and as a message to the Muslim world that he can be a sensible, political leader. Bin Laden's offer was repeated by his top deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, in a videotape aired yesterday.

"He was trying to show that he can act as a statesman who can negotiate a truce with the West on his own conditions," said an Arab security official who monitors militant movements, speaking on condition of anonymity. "He also wanted to show the Muslim world that he can put down his weapons, at a time when al-Qaida-affiliated groups in Iraq are alienating many Muslims with their actions."

Bin Laden may have been emboldened by the Madrid commuter train bombings in March 2004, specialists say. The attacks, which killed 191 people, caused a wave of anger in Spain that helped topple a conservative, pro-U.S. government. Spanish voters, who went to the polls three days after the bombings, overwhelmingly elected a Socialist government that proclaimed its distance from the Bush administration and quickly pulled Spanish troops out of Iraq.

That probably convinced bin Laden that he could score political victories by directly appealing to Western populations. For bin Laden, specialists say, the current situation with Spain could amount to an unofficial truce.

"In bin Laden's mind, the Madrid bombings changed the course of that election," said Mohammad Salah, an expert on militants at the pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat. "This might have convinced him that he needs to go around Western leaders and address their people directly."

In the tape, which was aired Jan. 19 on the Al-Jazeera satellite channel, bin Laden addressed the American people directly, saying at one point he hoped to reach "those who are sensible." It was the first statement from the al-Qaida leader in 13 months, the longest period without an audio or videotaped message from bin Laden since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

He argued that the Iraq war has emboldened Islamic militants, pointing to "explosions in the capitals of European nations" that supported the United States in Iraq. He then warned of upcoming attacks on U.S. soil.

Addressing the people

Bin Laden also offered a truce, speaking more to the U.S. public than its government. "We do not mind offering you a long-term truce based on fair conditions that we adhere to. We are a community that God has forbidden to lie and cheat," he said. "Both sides can enjoy security and stability under this truce, so we can rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan."

There is historical precedent in Islam for the kind of truce between communities that bin Laden seemed to allude to. In 628, the Prophet Muhammad agreed to a 10-year truce known as the Treaty of Hudaybiyah. It was between the nascent Muslim community and the Arab tribes of Mecca, which had fought Muhammad and his followers. It lasted for two years before the Meccans broke it by attacking Muslim Bedouin tribes. Muslims abided by the truce, even though many of them considered it unfair.

Although bin Laden did not specifically mention the treaty in his tape, he hinted at it by noting that Muslims are a "community that God has forbidden to lie and cheat." That was likely a reference to Islam's first truce and to an exhortation in the Quran - the Muslim holy book - urging believers to "fulfill the covenant of God when you have entered into it, and do not violate agreements after having accepted them."

Bin Laden also used the Arabic word ummah, as he often does, to describe the worldwide Muslim community. In this context, specialists say, he was likely hinting that he is the leader of the Muslim ummah who can negotiate a truce on its behalf.

"Osama bin Laden always tries to suggest that he is modeling his actions on those of the prophet," the security official said. "Of course, most Muslims abhor that comparison. But it does resonate with some extremists."

In a videotaped message that aired in late October 2004, and which apparently was aimed at influencing the U.S. presidential election, bin Laden offered a similar truce to the American public. "Your security is not in the hands of Kerry, Bush or al-Qaida," he said in that video, referring to the U.S. president and his Democratic challenger. "Your security is in your own hands."

The video marked a departure where bin Laden no longer spoke of a cataclysmic struggle between Islam and the West, but instead seemed to tell Americans they can stop al-Qaida attacks by rejecting leaders whose policies "harm" Muslims.

Some specialists wonder whether bin Laden would even be able to enforce a truce, especially in Iraq where militants allied with al-Zarqawi have shown little care for how they are perceived in the wider Muslim world.

"I'm not sure that some of those fighting in Iraq would listen to bin Laden if he told them to lay down their arms," said Rifaat Sayed, an Egyptian expert on Islamic militancy. "They could doubt his motives."

Not to be trusted

Sayed and other experts say bin Laden is unlikely to abide by a truce with the West, noting he has never laid out specific conditions for an agreement. They also argue that bin Laden's own statements could undermine his credibility with other militants if he sought a real truce.

At the heart of bin Laden's ideology are two fatwas, or religious decrees, declaring holy war against the United States. The first, issued in 1996, was directed at "Americans occupying the land of the two holy places," as bin Laden refers to his native Saudi Arabia, where thousands of U.S. troops were stationed after the 1991 Gulf War. The two holy sites are Muslim shrines at Mecca and Medina.

In 1998, bin Laden issued a broader fatwa that called for the killing of "Americans and their allies, civilians and military, in any country in which it is possible to do it." He argued that America had declared war on Muslims and therefore Muslims had to declare a holy war against the United States and its allies.

"Even if bin Laden was serious about a truce, his own fatwas would work against him," said Salah, the Al-Hayat writer. "He would have to explain a radical change in his ideology."