November 22, 2008
BAZZI IN BEIRUT
Hanging opens new rift
BEIRUT, Lebanon - Across the Arab world, Sunnis called and sent text messages to one another last weekend to offer condolences for the death of Saddam Hussein.
While many Sunnis were not necessarily fond of the deposed Iraqi dictator, they felt compelled to express their outrage at the way he was executed. At a particularly low point in relations between them and the Shias, the U.S.-backed Iraqi government made a series of miscalculations that gave Sunnis not just in Iraq, but all over the Muslim world, something concrete over which to hold a new grudge against Shias.
New Sunni-Shia rift
To Sunnis, the grainy, unofficial video of the execution shows that Hussein was killed by an angry, lawless mob of Shias. The impact of the images and sounds of witnesses taunting Hussein in his final moments cannot be underestimated: The execution could become a pivotal new schism in Sunni-Shia relations. Hussein's calm, defiant response made him seem like the embodiment of law and order at a time when Iraq desperately needs a way out of chaos.
"The vengeful and sectarian way in which Saddam was killed may be the tipping point for a sustained sectarian war -- Sunni rage against the Shia, followed by Shia reprisals -- both inside and outside Iraq," said Karim Sadjadpour, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, a think tank that focuses on conflict resolution.
"If there wasn't a deep-rooted Sunni-Shia rift in the region before Saddam's hanging, there is certainly one now."
Visions of a glorious past
Hussein was executed at the start of Eid Al-Adha, the holiest of Muslim holidays, infuriating the Sunni minority that formed the core of his regime and now drives Iraq's insurgency.
More broadly, by executing Hussein, Sunnis view the United States and the Shia-dominated Iraqi government as killing off the last vestiges of Arab nationalism.
Hussein was among the few Arab leaders who defied the West. In the Sunni view, America and its allies eradicated the idea of a glorious Arab past without offering a replacement, other than sectarianism.
In a region ruled by U.S.-backed despots, many Arabs admired Hussein because he challenged the United States and Israel. A reporter on the al-Jazeera satellite channel noted that Hussein's hanging on Dec. 30 marked "the execution of the first modern Arab president to attack Israel" -- a reference to the Iraqi leader's Scud missile attacks on Israeli cities during the 1991 Gulf War.
"Saddam's hanging has become part of the anti-American -- and anti-Shia -- narrative in the region," said Hazem Amin, an editor at the pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat. "It's one more in a long list of grievances that fuel anti-American sentiments."
After Hussein's death, Sunnis are glossing over his bloody reign as a leader who ruthlessly suppressed all opposition, dragged his country into two consecutive wars with its neighbors, used chemical weapons on his own people and executed, tortured or disappeared hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.
Throughout the Sunni-dominated Middle East, relations between Sunnis and Shias are badly strained by the sectarian bloodletting in Iraq.
Sunnis also are worried about the regional ascendancy of Shia-led Iran, its growing influence on the Iraqi leadership and its involvement in other countries with large Shia communities, especially Lebanon.
Impact on Arab world
Aside from the Iraqi government, Iran might be the biggest loser from the way Hussein's execution was handled.
"Iran's leadership aspires to be the vanguard of the entire Islamic world, not just the Shia world," Sadjadpour said. "The last thing Iran wants is a divided Muslim community and rising Sunni enmity towards Shia and Persians."
In several Arab capitals where Sunnis have protested the execution, demonstrators railed against the United States, Israel and "Persians" -- a code word for Shias.
In Saudi Arabia, newspapers published poems eulogizing Hussein, and one even vowed revenge against Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who signed the death warrant.
"Oh believers, prepare the gun that will avenge Saddam," said the unsigned poem. "The criminal who signed the execution order without valid reason cheated us on our celebration day. How beautiful it will be when the bullet goes through the heart of him who betrayed Arabism."
Most Sunnis had heard about rampant sectarian killings in Iraq, but few had actually seen a tangible example of the underlying politics at play -- until the execution video was broadcast on Arab TV and posted on the Internet.
In contrast to the official video aired on Iraqi state TV without sound, the footage taken by a cell phone showed Hussein being taunted with shouts damning him to hell and chants of "Muqtada, Muqtada, Muqtada" -- a reference to the renegade Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. He commands one of the most feared militias in Iraq today and has emerged as the country's Shia strongman.
The execution video's real impact might not be felt for weeks or even months, but Sunni-Shia tensions will continue to percolate across the region. Then, something perhaps unrelated and seemingly minor could light the fuse.
"There have been many low points to choose from in Iraq over the last few years," Sadjadpour said. "But Saddam's execution was rock-bottom in terms of the negative repercussions it's going to have throughout the region."
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