November 22, 2008
analysis
For Syria, time to change may be running out
BEIRUT - As pressure mounts on Syria to withdraw from Lebanon, the Syrian regime is adopting an old tactic: It is trying to wait out the criticism until the world's attention shifts.
But that strategy, which was refined by the late Syrian President Hafez Assad, is not likely to work this time. The Bush administration -- backed by France, a one-time Syrian ally -- appears determined to force Damascus to pay a political price for the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Although it acknowledges that there is no evidence linking Syria to the killing, the Bush administration has latched on to Hariri's death as a way to pressure Damascus to pull out its 15,000 troops and end its political domination over Lebanon.
In his first public comments since the massive bombing that killed Hariri on Monday, President George W. Bush accused Syria yesterday of being "out of step" with the region.
Bush said he would urge European countries to help pressure Syria and recommended an international investigation of Hariri's killing, an idea that the Lebanese government has rejected. The U.S. decision on Tuesday to recall its ambassador to Syria "indicates that the relationship is not moving forward," Bush said.
Bush repeated other demands his administration has made in recent years. He said Syria must end its support of Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups that are fighting Israel and must tighten its border with Iraq, to prevent militants from infiltrating to fight U.S. forces there.
The president stopped short of outlining what he would do to punish Syria if it did not comply. "The idea is to continue to work with the world to remind Syria it's not in their interest to be isolated," he said.
For now, Syrian leaders and the Syrian-backed Lebanese government insist that Damascus will keep its troops and vast intelligence apparatus here. But Hariri's killing unleashed public sentiment against the Syrian presence, with hundreds of thousands of Lebanese calling for its withdrawal during Hariri's funeral on Wednesday.
Analysts say Syrian President Bashar Assad, an inexperienced leader who came to power after his father's death in 2000, does not grasp that the United States is serious about wanting Damascus to change its policies. "Syria has been in a position like this for 20 years," said Michael Young, a Lebanese political analyst. "They never seem to understand when it is time that they have to change."
The Syrian regime was apparently caught off guard by Hariri's killing and is scrambling to craft a response to U.S. and European pressure, according to a Syrian opposition leader. "There is a sense of confusion in the upper ranks of government," said the leader, who spoke by phone from Damascus and asked not to be named. "They are hoping that this criticism will pass soon."
One reason the pressure has not died down is that the investigation into Hariri's killing appears to be stalled. Lebanese officials have not determined what caused the explosion that destroyed Hariri's armored motorcade as it passed Beirut's seaside hotel district. As a result, Lebanon is rife with conspiracy theories: Some speculate that explosives were laid under the street days before the bombing. Others are convinced a suicide bomber rammed Hariri's motorcade.
Hariri varied his routes, and his convoy included one or two cars with radio-jamming equipment intended to thwart remote-controlled bombs. The Lebanese opposition blames Syria and its allies in the Lebanese government for the killing. Hariri, a billionaire businessman who oversaw the rebuilding of Beirut, was planning to lead an opposition slate in parliamentary elections in the spring. With his wealth and popularity, he was a formidable opponent to Syrian-backed candidates.
Lebanon has a history of not tracking down those responsible for political killings, including the 1989 assassination of President-elect Rene Mouawad. Bowing to pressure, the Lebanese government asked Switzerland yesterday to send explosives and forensics experts to help in the Hariri investigation. But the government continued to resist an independent foreign inquiry.
Syria analysts doubt that Damascus was behind Hariri's killing. "It exposes Syria to attack from its enemies at a time when it is already under intense international pressure," said Patrick Seale, author of a definitive biography of Hafez Assad. "For all its faults, the Syrian regime is essentially rational. It seems highly unlikely that it would choose this moment to open another front."
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