Syria finds itself on the defensive

BEIRUT - Syria is under pressure as never before, and for once it is buckling.

The government of Syrian President Bashar Assad has come under intense international scrutiny in recent weeks for three reasons: Washington accuses it of harboring former members of Saddam Hussein's regime and supporting the Iraqi insurgency; many Lebanese blame it for the Feb. 14 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri; and Israel accuses it of organizing a suicide bombing on Friday that killed five people in Tel Aviv.

In the past, the Syrian regime would try to wait out the criticism until the world's attention shifted. That tactic was refined by the late Syrian leader Hafez Assad during his three decades in power, but it is not likely to work this time. The Bush administration, backed by Syria's one-time allies in Europe, is determined to force Damascus to pay politically for Hariri's killing. Although it acknowledges that there is no evidence linking Syria to the assassination, the United States has latched onto Hariri's murder as a way to force Damascus to withdraw its 15,000 troops and end its political domination over Lebanon.

"Syrian actions finally gathered a critical mass where Damascus has to react. All these forces are now allied against it," said Jamil Mroue, editor of Beirut's Daily Star newspaper. "For the past two years, Syrian foreign policy has been erratic. Now, it will have to pay the price."

Rethinking relationships

Already, Damascus has shown signs of changing its ways. On Sunday, the Syrians turned over one of Hussein's half brothers to the Iraqi government after insisting for two years that former Iraqi Baathists were not finding refuge in Syria. U.S. and Iraqi officials say Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan, No. 36 on the U.S. list of 55 most-wanted Iraqis, has played a key role in financing and organizing the Iraqi insurgency.

On Monday, the Syrian-backed Lebanese government abruptly resigned amid growing popular protests and demands for Syria to end its meddling in Lebanese affairs. There is a strong sense in Lebanon that Syria will finally withdraw troops, after first deploying them in 1975. "A Syrian withdrawal is now inevitable," said Hazem Amin, an editor at Al-Hayat newspaper. "The main question is what else Syria will have to do to please the United States."

U.S. officials have used the Syrian presence in Lebanon to pressure Damascus to end its support of militant groups fighting Israel. Washington also has demanded that Syria tighten its border with Iraq, to prevent militants from infiltrating to fight U.S. forces.

With Syria on the defensive, the Bush administration has renewed its demands that Assad turn over Iraqi Baathists and expel leaders of the Palestinian groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad who live in Damascus. The United States also wants Syria to disarm the Lebanese guerrilla group Hezbollah, which effectively controls Lebanon's southern border with Israel.

Analysts say Assad, 38, an inexperienced leader who came to power after his father's death in 2000, did not seem convinced until recently that the United States is serious about wanting him to change Syrian policies. "Syria has been in a position like this for 20 years," said Michael Young, a Lebanese political analyst. "They never seem to understand when it is time that they have to change."

Assad in charge

Since assuming power, Assad has tried to project a better image to the West. Damascus has made economic and social reforms, and has argued that it would be a stable ally for the United States. After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Syria's vast security apparatus began sharing information with U.S. intelligence agencies about al-Qaida and other militant groups. But thatcooperation ended when U.S. officials started criticizing Syria soon after Hussein's regime fell.

Damascus sees little incentive to entirely cut its support to Hezbollah and Palestinian militants. That is because Syrian leaders believe Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will not negotiate a return of the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East War, and that the United States will not broker a peace deal between the two nations.

Assad faces a difficult choice. If he appears to be giving in too much to Washington's pressure, he could anger remnants of the "old guard" installed by his father and lose his grip on power. But Assad also is worried the United States could impose international sanctions and isolate Syria. "There is confusion in Damascus right now," newspaper editor Mroue said. "Since Saddam Hussein's regime fell, the Syrians have been misreading the situation in the region."

Damascus was apparently caught off-guard by Hariri's killing, and it has been scrambling to craft a response to U.S. and European pressure. Syria's extensive intelligence apparatus in Lebanon and its rough dealings with the Lebanese opposition left it open to blame.

"There is no physical evidence that Syria was behind Hariri's killing," Mroue said. "But Syria has been very heavy-handed in Lebanon over the past four or five years. It misread the situation, and now it is seen as the prime suspect in Hariri's death."

The crisis precipitated by Hariri's killing also left Syria open to accusations from its arch-enemy, Israel. On Saturday, Israeli officials blamed Damascus and Hezbollah for orchestrating the bombing in Tel Aviv in an effort to thwart Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told ABC News yesterday that "the Syrians have a lot to answer for" because "firm" evidence suggested groups in Syria were to blame. Even Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas hinted at Syrian involvement. "There is a third party that wants to sabotage this process," he said.

"It's not enough that Syrians deny their involvement in the bombing and most Arabs believe them," Mroue said. "The Israelis have put this issue on the agenda. It is something that could provide a pretext for attacking Syria."

An Israeli military strike against Syria or Hezbollah bases in Lebanon could destabilize the region even further. But some analysts argue that Damascus might be hoping to provoke Israel into a confrontation with Hezbollah because that could give Syria a pretext for keeping its troops in Lebanon.

Syria's influence is most visible in Lebanon's foreign policy. It is taboo for any Lebanese politician to suggest Lebanon should pursue its own peace negotiations with Israel, without linking them to Syria. For years, Syria has tried to use its hegemony over Lebanon as leverage to pressure Israel to return the Golan Heights.

The next crucial test of Syria's intentions will be whether it withdraws soldiers and security agents, and ends its political dominance. "A military withdrawal is not enough," Mroue said. "Syria has to reform the entire way it deals with Lebanon."