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Trump hates the nuclear pact with Iran, but the rest of the world is busy cutting deals

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Judging from Donald Trump’s campaign posturing, his Big Three foreign policy views go something like this: Russia can be wooed, Iran needs to be slammed, and China’s economic and strategic reach must be tamed.

But what happens when they all start to overlap? A series of initiatives and announcements Monday pointed to the deepening interplay between Iran, China and Russia – and offered an early lesson to the Trump administration on the slippery reality of the world.

One maxim Trump will quickly learn: Washington now has very limited power to isolate and punish Iran. Trump may be able to follow through on pledges to tear up the U.S. portion of last year’s nuclear deal, which seeks to rein in Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for easing international sanctions.

But that leaves America’s other five negotiating partners – including Russia and China – sticking with the program and making deals with Iran.

Business projects with Iran are already in motion with France and other European Union nations. (Germany, France and Britain also were part of the nuclear talks). In Brussels, E.U. foreign ministers made an indirect jab at Trump on Monday by reaffirming support for the nuclear accord, which the president-elect has branded as the “worst deal in the world.”

Beijing and Moscow also appear to be moving ahead strongly on the military front with Iran.

Russia has opened talks with Iran on a major arms deal worth around $10 billion, Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency reported. The package would include T-90 tanks, artillery systems, warplanes and helicopters, according to the head of the top parliamentary defense committee, Viktor Ozerov.

At the same time, Iran’s defense minister, Gen. Hossein Dehghan, signed an agreement Monday in Tehran with his Chinese counterpart, Chang Wanquan, to conduct joint military training exercises, Iranian state media reported.

Neither announcement offered details, such as a possible timetable for the Russian arms pact or the size and scope of the planned Chinese-Iranian war games.

But any military expansions by Iran has some fundamental motivations: worries about the U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf and U.S. upgrades to the armed forces in Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Russia has been a major arms supplier to Iran for decades, and built Iran’s lone energy-producing nuclear reactor. A possible increase in Russia’s weapons flow right before Trump takes over the White House would likely give pause to even his stalwart backers.

They looked the other way when Trump praised Russian President Vladimir Putin’s uncompromising leadership, and Trump’s campaign team hailed the release of leaked Clinton team emails despite U.S. intelligence assertions that the hacks likely came from Russia. But Trump is now getting a quick taste of the normal push-and-pull of diplomacy. His possible first test: Vow to follow through with pledges to reset the frosty relations with Russia even while Moscow is boosting arms sales to Iran?

Russia may even start goading Trump to stick with his promises.

A senior Russia foreign ministry official, Ilya Rogachev, cast doubts Monday on whether the outsider Trump could stand up to the “establishment, political elite” in Washington and forge new bonds with Russia, such as proposed cooperation in fighting the Islamic State in Syria. Moscow is a critical ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while the United States and many allies back rebel factions seeking to bring him down – yet another morass awaiting Trump.

“As we are well aware, part of the U.S. establishment is being quite negative about prospects of cooperating with us,” said Rogachev, who heads the Foreign Ministry office for new challenges and emerging threats.

In Beijing, meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Trump by telephone Monday that the two powers need to work together on challenges, such as global economic growth, state broadcaster China Central Television reported.

The Trump transition team said the two leaders “established a clear sense of mutual respect,” but gave no mention of U.S. worries over Beijing’s expanding influence in the region. One major flash point facing Trump is Chinese claims of sovereignty over the South China Sea, which borders the Philippines, Vietnam and other nations that have been wary of Beijing’s growing influence.

The apparent cordial exchange with Xi may not play so well with some of Trump’s voter base, which seized upon his denunciations of China as a currency manipulator that has helped undermine U.S. manufacturing jobs.

The Washington Post